May 30, 2022

By Cole Shelton

Canadian Baseball Network

When the Toronto Blue Jays announced they had acquired third baseman Matt Chapman this off-season, it was a big move for a World Series hopeful team.

Toronto had a major hole at third base and Chapman is one of the best in the American League defensively, but last season his bat wasn’t the same.

In 2021, Chapman batted just .210 and so far this season with the Blue Jays in 160 at bats, he’s hitting just .200 with six home runs. However, if you’ve been paying attention, the third baseman is making hard contact but the balls aren’t finding the holes.

As of May 30, Chapman has a hard hit percentage of 56.1 which is the highest of his career (His previous high was 51.7 in 2020). He is also in the 98th percentile in MLB in hard hit percentage. Along with that, last season when he struggled, his hard hit percentage was just 41.7.

Meanwhile, he also has an exit velocity of 92.4 which is three miles per hour harder than last season and in the 95th percentile this season. He is also making solid contact 9.6% of the time which is his highest since 2017. With Chapman making hard contact, home runs should usually follow, however, he only has six this season but his expected home run is 7.7.

Not only is Chapman hitting the ball hard, but he is also making good contact and exhibiting a good eye for the zone. He’s making contact 77.2% of the time when pitches are in the zone which is five percent higher than last year and just 0.2 lower than his career average. As well, he’s only chasing 19.1% of the time which is significantly lower than the MLB average of 28.3% and his career average of 19.1%.

Part of Chapman’s struggles is that he is just hitting .113 against breaking pitches. Once he starts to figure out the breaking ball, the 29-year-old will be the hitter many expected when Toronto traded for him.

Even with Chapman not getting the bounces, the MLB season is a long one and his hard hit balls will likely start finding the gaps. Once that happens, the Blue Jays lineup will look that much deeper. For now, the third baseman is still playing exceptional defensively.