Shushkewich: Predicting where Canuck free agents will land - O'Neill, Pivetta, Soroka
November 14, 2024
By Tyson Shushkewich
Canadian Baseball Network
With the World Series in the rearview mirror and the Los Angeles Dodgers officially crowned as champions, it is time for one of the most exciting periods of the year – the offseason.
Full of roster moves, trades, qualifying offers and a hot stove churning out free agent rumor after rumor, the offseason can make any baseball fan feel the highs and lows when rooting for their favourite team.
Whether it is the signing of a franchise altering player to a long-term deal or watching your favourite player depart for another organization, the winter months can be some of the most exciting times of the year for fans of the game and heartbreak for others who are clinging to beat journalists’ every tweet, article and broadcast for tidbits of information.
This offseason features multiple Canadians heading into free agent waters, with most doing so for the first time. With such a large number of Canucks searching for a new squad heading into the 2025 campaign, let’s take a look at who is available and where they may end up this winter.
OF Tyler O’Neill
After spending six seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, O’Neill, 29, was traded to the Boston Red Sox after the 2023 season in exchange for two right-handed pitchers. A left fielder by trade, he joined a Red Sox organization needing a corner outfielder to help compete in the AL East that also brought some thunder at the plate.
Before heading to the American League, the right-handed batter clubbed 78 home runs in 477 games, posting a .458 SLG and a .776 OPS that was aided by his 67 doubles. His best season came in 2021 when he played a career-high 138 games and smashed 34 homers and collected 80 RBIs to the tune of a 148 OPS+ and a 6.1 bWAR.
With Boston in 2024, O’Neill posted arguably the second-best season of his seven-year career, authoring a .241/.336/.511 slash line with a team-high 31 home runs and adding in 61 RBIs and a .847 OPS. With the Red Sox, O’Neill boosted his hard-hit % rate to 48.8% - almost 10 points higher than the big-league average.
The biggest caveat to O’Neill’s game is his injury history, since he has been sidelined with ailments that have limited him to 100 games or fewer in five of his seven seasons in the majors. The injuries have differed over the years and some have been downright unlucky at times (an infection in his leg earlier this year for example) but teams looking to dish out long-term deals will take this history into consideration.
O’Neill (Maple Ridge, BC) could fit into quite a few organizational depth charts especially since he posted a 30-plus home run season and was one of the better Boston bats. The bonus for O’Neill is that he isn’t tied to a qualifying offer and draft pick compensation, so smaller market clubs prioritizing contract control could look to O’Neill over someone like Teoscar Hernandez, who is tied to a qualifying offer.
A few teams that need help in the corner outfield spots include the Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals and the Pittsburgh Pirates, while the Baltimore Orioles could join in if free agent Anthony Santander does not return. There will always be the Canadian connection with the Toronto Blue Jays, who could use his bat and prowess in left field next season, but playing on the artificial turf given his injury history is something to consider.
Prediction: A two-year deal with a player option with the Kansas City Royals
RHP Nick Pivetta
O’Neill is not the only Canadian Red Sox player looking for a new team this winter, as Pivetta also heads to the free agent market for the first time.
Drafted by the Washington Nationals in 2013, Pivetta (Victoria, BC) was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies, where he made his debut in 2017. The Junior National Team alum spent parts of five seasons with Philadelphia before being traded to the Red Sox in 2020.
Pivetta has spent the majority of his time in the rotation but he has also pitched out of the bullpen, making 45 appearances as a reliever. Heading into free agency, Pivetta, 31, has a lifetime 4.76 ERA in 1,029 1/3 innings and owns a 10.0 K/9 with a 1.316 WHIP. Since joining the Red Sox, Pivetta has produced better – a 4.29 ERA across 131 outings (107 starts) – and was issued a qualifying offer by Boston valued at $21.05 million.
One reason for the qualifying offer is his stellar walk rate in 2024, where he allowed 36 free passes to the tune of a 2.2 BB/9 while ranking in the 88th percentile in K% at 28.9 with 172 strikeouts. He has authored a double-digit K/9 three times over the past four seasons and has been predominantly healthy over the past three outside of an elbow strain earlier this year. He has struggled at times to find success but has shown flashes of brilliance when things are clicking well, which again bodes well given his durability.
The qualifying offer may drive teams away from pursuing Pivetta especially since talk is he will turn down the offer from the Red Sox in favour of a multi-year deal. Given that he is on the other side of 30, he likely won’t receive more than three to four years, but should be able to find what he’s looking for from teams looking to bolster rotations.
Even with the offer in mind, a return to the Red Sox seems highly likely given their need for rotation help and multiple pitchers (Lucas Giolito and Garret Whitlock) undergoing elbow surgery in recent memory. Should the two sides not find common ground, teams likely will pivot to Pivetta if other free agents like Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes fall off the board and could drive his market even higher. The Chicago Cubs could be interested as well as teams like Atlanta Braves and the Orioles, who might have holes to fill in their rotations if Fried and Burnes (respectively) sign elsewhere this winter.
Prediction: A three-year deal with the Red Sox
The Quick Hits
RHP Michael Soroka
Michael Soroka had a fresh start this winter with the Chicago White Sox, who acquired him from the Atlanta Braves in a package deal for reliever Aaron Bummer during the offseason.
Soroka (Calgary, Alta.) struggled out of the gate in the White Sox rotation and was eventually moved to the bullpen in mid-May. He later found himself on the IL with a shoulder injury and missed over two months late in the year. Overall, Soroka finished the season with a 4.74 ERA in 79 2/3 innings with a 9.5 K/9 and an elevated 5.0 BB/9.
For a player who missed significant time over the years due to injury, Soroka, who is out of minor league options, is a bounce-back candidate to keep an eye on this winter for an opportunity to compete for a rotation spot. He also has the ability to work out of the bullpen.
Prediction: A one-year ‘prove it’ deal fits him well in his first foray in free agency.
INF Abraham Toro
Suiting up for his fourth pro team since making his debut in 2019, Toro was looking to carve out a full-time role on the Oakland A’s this spring and got off to a strong start. Through the end of May, the switch-hitting infielder was one of the top A’s bats – owning a .288/.332/.429 slash line and a .761 OPS with 20 RBIs.
However, that success was short-lived, as Toro struggled mightily from June through August (.188 BAbip and a .444 OPS) while missing over a month with a hamstring injury. He was designated for assignment in late August. Toro went unclaimed through waivers and finished the season in triple-A on the injured list.
Toro (Longueuil, Que.) is a free agent for the first time and is looking for a new home after an up-and-down campaign in the AL West. A minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Training seems likely. Toro, 27, has lots left and his versatility across the diamond could be a depth asset for almost any club.
Prediction: Toro could also take his talents to Korea or Japan in an attempt to revitalize his career.
INF Charles Leblanc
Leblanc is no stranger to free agency, as the former Miami Marlin hit the open market last winter and signed a minor-league deal with the Los Angeles Angels.
Leblanc (Laval, Que.) spent most of the campaign in triple-A Salt Lake, where he put together a slash line of .254/.379/.437 with 20 doubles, 12 home runs, and 52 RBIs and an .816 OPS. He was with the Angels late in the year, riding the options bus through September while slotting into 11 games, where he collected four hits – including two home runs – with a .393 OBP and a .869 OPS.
Leblanc elected free agency after the season and is in a similar position he faced last winter. He has the ability to play across the infield but he has made most of his big-league appearances at second and third. The Marlins and Angels also gave him some reps at first base.
Prediction: Another minor-league deal likely.