Shushkewich: Three potential teams for free agent James Paxton
Left-hander James Paxton (Ladner, B.C.) is a free agent and is coming off a solid comeback season with the Boston Red Sox.
January 8, 2024
By Tyson Shushkewich
Canadian Baseball Network
Southpaw James Paxton (Ladner, B.C.) enters the new year without a team after a two-year stint with the Boston Red Sox.
A fourth round pick of the Seattle Mariners in 2010, the 35-year-old nicknamed “Big Maple” is heading into his 11th big league season.
A product of the North Delta Blue Jays and the Junior National Team, Paxton’s career, which has included tenures with the Mariners, New York Yankees and Red Sox, has been impacted by numerous injuries. As a result, the left-hander has pitched more than 150 innings in a season just twice in his career.
Paxton had signed a one-year $10-million deal (which included a player option) with the Red Sox before the 2022 season but spent that entire season on the IL while he recovered from Tommy John surgery.
The B.C. product is coming off an up-and-down campaign with the Red Sox in 2023 after he exercised his player option to return to the East Coast for another year. He started the year on the IL due to a hamstring injury, but made his Red Sox debut on May 10 against the St. Louis Cardinals.
The 6-foot-4 lefty was solid from May through July, sporting a 3.34 ERA through 70 innings and 13 starts before struggling in the season’s latter half. Following the trade deadline, he made just six starts and posted a 7.62 ERA in 26 innings before finishing the year on the injured list with knee inflammation.
With the start of spring training roughly five weeks away, Paxton is a free agent for the third time in his career. He has been a quality pitcher when healthy. He earned AL Pitcher of the Month honours last June (1.74 ERA through five starts and 31 innings) and he also has a no-hitter on his resume. That 99-pitch masterpiece saw him become the second Canadian-born pitcher to throw a no-hitter and the first Canadian to do so on home soil.
Any team looking for a bounce-back rotation arm would benefit from adding Paxton, as the left-hander appears healthy and ready to go in the new year.
Let’s look at three teams that could use the Ladner, B.C. product’s arm this upcoming campaign:
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are having an interesting offseason. They dealt away former All-Star starter Chris Sale to the Atlanta Braves and also made an inter-division deal with the New York Yankees, sending outfielder Alex Verdugo the other way. They have added fellow Canadian Tyler O’Neill (Maple Ridge, B.C.) and are reportedly interested in adding pitching this winter even after signing Lucas Giolito earlier this month. With this in mind, a reunion between Paxton and the Red Sox could be on the horizon.
According to WEEI’s Rob Bradford back in December, the Red Sox were reportedly showing strong interest in the left-hander, which makes sense given Boston knows what Paxton is capable of and needs some starting pitching if they want to contend in the AL East. With new general manager, Craig Breslow, at the helm for the Red Sox, turning to a familiar face might not be a bad thing.
Paxton boasts strong numbers at Fenway Park, holding opponents to 22 earned runs through 53 1/3 innings and posting a 3.71 ERA through 10 starts, including a 11.0 K/9 and a 1.275 WHIP. In what would likely be a short-term deal, Paxton would be able to prove that he can find his way back into the rotation and if the Red Sox fall out of contention within the division by the trade deadline, they can move the veteran for prospect assets.
An easy gamble for both sides given the club has a few arms that can slot in either the rotation or bullpen in Nick Pivetta (Victoria, B.C.), Tanner Houck, and Kutter Crawford should Paxton earn a rotation spot for Opening Day and add to the club’s starting depth.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs finished in the middle of the pack last year with their rotation, ranking 14th in ERA (4.26), 15th in WHIP (1.28), and 20th in strikeouts (736). The club used 11 different starting pitchers and while Justin Steele and Kyle Hendricks did well, newcomer Jameson Taillon struggled (4.84 ERA through 29 starts) and the club will be without Marcus Stroman as the right-hander is a free agent this winter.
So far this offseason, the Cubs have not made any notable moves in free agency and if they want to compete in the NL Central next year, bringing in an arm like Paxton might be the depth move to make. The Cubs could turn to Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski, or Jordan Wicks to get some starts this year but Paxton has arguably better numbers over the veteran Smyly and more experience than Wesneski and Wicks at the big-league level.
There hasn’t been a rumoured connection between the Cubs and the Canadian product at this time but a fit between the two makes sense on a few levels.
For starters, Paxton would be a more affordable option compared to other names left on the free agent board and a short-term deal would be a perfect bridge between Wicks and Wesneski securing more of a role in the Cubs’ rotation in the future. While Chicago could turn to their young starters, adding Paxton into the mix gives the rotation some veteran influence while also keeping the depth in place for one of the up-and-coming arms should the Canadian hurler struggle to stay healthy.
Secondly, Paxton would be pitching in an NL Central division that features some more pitcher-friendly ballparks in Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Milwaukee, and at home in the north side of Chicago. All four of these ballparks are within 1-2 points of the 100 average range for Park Factor and should play well for Paxton, who has seen his flyball average rise since the 2018 campaign (ranging 5-8% each year compared to his prior values ranging at around 20-21%). With a fastball that sits around the 94-97 MPH range and a curveball that when working can be his main put-away pitch, the southpaw has been refining his cutter since undergoing Tommy John surgery and his arsenal should fit in well within the confines of Wrigley Field.
Bringing Paxton into the Cubs’ rotation would be additional depth for a club that has had a very slow offseason.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants have been one of the more active teams this winter. They were tied to superstar Shohei Ohtani before he signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers and recently pulled off a deal with the Mariners to bring in Robbie Ray, who is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and is slated to return around the All-Star break.
Even with this move, the Giants will likely still be in the market for at least one more starting pitcher as the club enters next season with Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Keaton Winn, and Kyle Harrison slated for the rotation. They will be without Alex Wood and Sean Manaea this upcoming season as both are free agents and Anthony DeSclafani is heading to Seattle as part of the Ray deal.
Internally, the Giants could run with Ross Stripling as the last rotation arm but he struggled mightily in 2023 and considering the NL West is one of the tougher divisions in the league (and now even stronger with the Dodgers' offseason of spending), the Giants should be looking for external help for the starting core. San Francisco used 13 different pitchers in the rotation last season and ranked 10th overall with a combined 4.12 ERA but were last place in innings pitched, boasting just 729 1/3 innings from their rotation.
Paxton would be a strong fit for a Giants squad that heads into next season with just one left-hander in the starting corps until Ray returns.
His high career strikeout numbers and even his recently elevated fly-ball rates would play well at the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park and the left-hander has strong numbers in San Francisco, albeit in a small sample size (3.38 ERA through 10 2/3 innings). The Giants’ rotation recorded the fewest walks in 2023 (171, 36 fewer than the second-place Rays) and ranked 26th in strikeouts (656) and Paxton helps in both departments, boasting a career 2.8 BB/9 and a 9.9 K/9, holding a rate over the 9.0 K/9 mark since 2017.
Adding Paxton would give San Francisco some breathing room for the rotation considering Ray is coming back from UCL surgery later this year and Cobb is coming back from offseason hip surgery. Trusting Winn and Harrison for an increased role after their respective rookie debuts last year is a risky move as well and throwing Paxton into the mix could help the Giants use fewer starters in 2024.